According to BloombergNew energyFinance (BNEF)s recently released Q1 2024 GlobalphotovoltaicMarket Outlook report, global solar PV additions are expected to reach an astonishing 655GWdc in 2024, a significant increase from approximately 444GWdc in 2023. This growth marks continued global investment and expansion in renewable energy, particularly in the solar PV sector.

The report shows that under various forecast scenarios, the conservative estimate for global solar PV additions is 520GWdc, while the optimistic scenario reaches 655GWdc, with a moderate scenario predicting 574GWdc. Behind this strong growth, China continues to play a leading role, with its solar PV installations expected to reach 313.7GWdc in 2024, accounting for 54.7% of global new capacity.

The U.S., India, Brazil, and Germany follow, with expected additions of 40.6GWdc, 18.1GWdc, 17GWdc, and 16.5GWdc, respectively. In Europe, countries such as Spain, the Netherlands, and Italy will also significantly increase their solar PV installations, reflecting the continents continued commitment to renewable energy.

As global efforts to reduce carbon footprints and enhance energy independence intensify, the rapid development of the solar PV industry has become a key solution to these challenges. BNEFs research further highlights cumulative solar PV capacity forecasts for European countries by 2030, showing Germany, Italy, and Spains leading positions in Europe.

In addition to capacity growth, the solar PV industry has experienced significant changes in polysilicon prices. In 2023, polysilicon prices fell by 74%, which is significant for reducing the overall cost of solar PV systems. However, the report also notes that despite price declines in China, premiums persist in non-China markets, partly due to stringent supply chain requirements in the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, China continues to show growth momentum in solar cell and module exports, with 2023 exports increasing from 181GW in 2022 to 255GW, surpassing all installed capacity outside mainland China and the U.S. This growth not only reflects Chinas dominance in the global solar PV supply chain but also indicates strong global demand for solar PV products.

Although shipping disruptions in the Red Sea region have posed challenges to global supply chains, BNEF expects limited material impact on Europeansolarmodule supplies. Despite rising freight costs, ample module inventories in Europe and oversupply in the shipping industry are expected to allow the solar PV market to maintain its strong growth momentum.